Trump to Unveil Key Protectionist Trade Policy Amid Uncertainty
President Donald Trump is set to reveal the cornerstone of his protectionist trade agenda on April 2. However, don’t expect clear answers on which goods will be targeted by new global tariffs or how businesses should prepare.
A White House ally close to Trump’s inner circle bluntly told POLITICO, “No one knows what’s going on. What are they going to tariff? Who are they going to target and at what rates? Basic questions haven’t been answered yet.”
While Wall Street expected unpredictability from Trump 2.0, few anticipated his firm commitment to the bold policy agenda that defined his 2024 campaign. Trump is pushing forward with tariffs, mass deportations, and plans to dismantle major federal agencies — all without concern for the potential impact on markets, corporate America, or the broader economy.
“Investors are realizing that Trump 2.0 will be quite different from his first term,” said Julia Coronado, president of MacroPolicy Perspectives. “He’s less sensitive to the stock market than we thought.”
The uncertain path ahead has already affected economic projections and consumer expectations. However, the risks outlined by Coronado are more existential, making them harder to predict and price.
Trump’s ongoing battles with the judiciary have led to speculation that he may defy court orders, further heightening uncertainty. His administration’s control over government payment systems has also raised concerns over the certainty of federal funding, which could impact both the dollar and Treasury markets.
As Coronado explained, while economic models can predict the effects of higher tariffs or reduced federal spending, risks like the breakdown of rule of law and shifts in financial system rules are far harder to quantify.
These uncertainties only add to a policy climate that has already weakened confidence in economic projections. Even Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has expressed doubt about the central bank’s ability to forecast effectively.
As Coronado summed it up: “In terms of the policy outlook, I’m certain of absolutely nothing.”