Losing a deputy just two years after being elected on a joint ticket might seem like a major setback for a president, but not in Kenya’s case.
As soon as Rigathi Gachagua appeared to undermine William Ruto, the president acted quickly to remove him from office. Having experienced the dysfunction caused by a falling-out with his former boss, President Uhuru Kenyatta, Ruto was determined not to repeat that mistake.
Although the political changes in Kenya were broadcast live, they may have seemed orderly and smooth to an outsider. The impeachment process attracted widespread attention as parliament, the courts, and the executive all followed a carefully laid-out legal process.
However, for many Kenyans, the events have been a turbulent rollercoaster, stirring strong reactions across the country.
Initially, there was a sense of betrayal and disappointment, particularly in Gachagua’s home region of Mount Kenya. By Friday morning, however, that sentiment had shifted to acceptance, as Kithure Kindiki, who was chosen to replace Gachagua, hails from the same region.
Mount Kenya played a pivotal role in Ruto’s victory over former Prime Minister Raila Odinga in the 2022 presidential election. Odinga ran with Martha Karua, a powerful former Justice Minister from the region, and had the backing of the outgoing president, Uhuru Kenyatta, also from Mount Kenya. However, with Gachagua on the ticket, Ruto won a landslide in the region.
Kenyan politics are largely driven by regional (or ethnic) blocs, with Mount Kenya holding about a quarter of the country’s votes. This explains why three of Kenya’s five presidents since independence—Jomo Kenyatta, Mwai Kibaki, and Uhuru Kenyatta—came from the region. It also explains why both Ruto and Odinga chose running mates from Mount Kenya in 2022, as they are both from other regions.
Alienating the region could be political suicide for a president, especially in their first term. However, Gachagua’s attempts to solidify his influence in Mount Kenya ultimately led to his downfall.
He was accused by parliament of promoting ethnically divisive politics when he was supposed to be a unifier. Gachagua even coined the phrase “usiguze mlima” (don’t touch the mountain), positioning himself as a fierce defender of Mount Kenya and its interests.
During the impeachment process, clips surfaced showing Gachagua suggesting that the government would prioritize areas that supported Ruto’s ticket, a sentiment also expressed by Ruto himself. This angered legislators from other regions.
Despite pleas for intervention, Ruto remained silent throughout the impeachment proceedings, even as Gachagua sought forgiveness for any wrongs he may have committed.
Kenya has a recent precedent of the turmoil caused by a president and his deputy falling out. During Kenyatta’s second term, Ruto, then deputy president, complained of being sidelined and persecuted. His victimhood resonated with many, even within Kenyatta’s own political base. But sympathy alone wasn’t enough for Ruto to win the 2022 election—he needed a running mate from Mount Kenya.
Many expected Ruto to choose his long-time ally, law professor Kithure Kindiki, but he surprised everyone by selecting Rigathi Gachagua, then a one-term MP. Kindiki was well known, having previously served as deputy speaker before being purged by Kenyatta in an attempt to weaken Ruto’s allies. Gachagua had come second in the race for running mate but ultimately became Ruto’s choice.
So, Gachagua’s removal is not entirely unexpected. The fact that his replacement, Kindiki, comes from Mount Kenya has helped ease the anger and sense of betrayal among the region’s people. Locals have been calling for acceptance of the president’s decision to prevent further division.
The focus now shifts to the next elections, just three years away. But this change will likely still dent Ruto’s support in Mount Kenya.
The success of this process has also been aided by Ruto’s new alliance with his former political rival, Raila Odinga. Odinga’s MPs and senators overwhelmingly voted to remove Gachagua from office. The National Assembly even chose James Orengo, a close associate of Odinga, to lead its legal team during the impeachment.
This alliance, though pragmatic, could prove problematic for Ruto in the long run. The durability of this partnership is uncertain, but it highlights the fluidity of Kenya’s political landscape.
For now, Ruto has appointed four senior members of Odinga’s party to his cabinet and is backing Odinga for the influential role of African Union Commission chairman. The two have a long and complex political history, having been allies and rivals at different points.
In the 2002 presidential election, Ruto supported Kenyatta, while Odinga backed Kibaki, who ultimately won. In 2007, Ruto switched sides to support Odinga, while Kenyatta backed incumbent President Kibaki. This led to widespread violence, and both Ruto and Kenyatta were later indicted by the International Criminal Court for their roles in the post-election violence. However, the charges were dropped due to lack of evidence.
In 2013 and 2017, Ruto and Kenyatta ran together and defeated Odinga. Their ICC cases were dismissed, and the two went on to form a powerful political alliance.
In Kenya, alliances can shift rapidly, and anything is possible in its dynamic political environment.
Gachagua, who had hoped to rise to similar political stature, has seen his ambitions thwarted for now. He is challenging his impeachment in court, and if successful, he could regain his political footing. If not, he will be barred from running for office for at least ten years.
At 59, Gachagua’s political future is uncertain. He could fade into obscurity or re-enter the political scene, either as a rival to Ruto or as a potential ally.
Despite the apparent break between Ruto and Gachagua, no one in Kenya would be surprised to see the two shake hands and smile together on national television in the future.
Kenya’s political scene is ever-changing, with tectonic shifts that make the unpredictable the norm. Anything can happen.